The US could lose up to 900 warplanes fighting a Chinese invasion of Taiwan but would emerge victorious, says think tank

The war games, organized by a Washington think tank, simulate a battle between China and the US if China invades Taiwan.Center for Strategic and International Studies

  • The think tank analyzed the war game analysis of the conflict between the US and China over Taiwan.

  • An analyst told Insider that the US and Taiwan will succeed in defeating a Chinese invasion.

  • However, both sides are likely to suffer heavy losses. 900 US warplanes could be destroyed.

The US and Taiwan might be able to deter a Chinese invasion, but it would cost both sides huge losses, the think tank’s analysis found.

A Washington-based think tank, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Conducting war games to imagine how such a conflict would play out.

“The good news is that at the end of all the iterations so far, there is an autonomous Taiwan,” Mark Kancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Insider.

“The United States and Taiwan have generally succeeded in keeping the island out of Chinese control, but the cost has been high—the loss of hundreds of planes, aircraft carriers, and the terrible destruction of Taiwan’s economy and Chinese navy. Air force.”

In a more pessimistic scenario, 900 American fighter and attack aircraft would be lost in four weeks, equivalent to half of the US Air Force and Navy’s fighter jets. The Times of London.

Potential war game loss.

Potential losses in war games.Center for Strategic and International Studies

But while the U.S. is likely to suffer major losses in a full-scale conflict with China, Cancian notes that, in general, China is likely to suffer more.

“I would say in most situations, the Chinese fleet suffers a lot more because it’s so exposed,” he said.

He noted that they would lose over 100 ships during the amphibious assault.

War games are designed to help you imagine how a conflict will play out. In this fictional conflict that takes place in 2026, each side only has the military capabilities that they have already demonstrated in real life.

The team has run the game 18 out of 22 times so far and plans to release the final report in December.

The game consists of two boards with an operational map of the Western Pacific including Taiwan, Japan, China, and counters that are moved on the board.

The team uses computer models and battle result tables to determine what happens based on analysis of historical experience. Dice are used to add an element of randomness.

They then move to a different map for Taiwan, which plays a ground game when the Chinese land and the Taiwanese try to defend the island.

Map of Taiwan used for war games.

A map of Taiwan used for war games.Center for Strategic and International Studies

Cancian said he has yet to run the worst-case scenario but pointed to one game he’s given. The Wall Street Journal, That included two pessimistic factors: the US being distracted by crises elsewhere in the world, such as Ukraine, and Taiwan being slow to react to Chinese information operations and sabotage.

He said he plans to run the game with some more pessimistic assumptions in the future, including an attack on the Chinese mainland and the role of Japan.

Kancian said CSIS would suggest some reforms to U.S. policy that could deter China, such as buying more long-range missiles and building shelters in Guam and Japan to protect the planes as most of the planes were destroyed on the ground.

War game board.

War game board.Center for Strategic and International Studies

Tensions between the U.S. and China have increased over Taiwan, and some military analysts believe that China Finally can attack Island.

China has for decades Pressured governments It has promised not to recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation “Integrate” Self-governing island with mainland by 2050.

The US has long tried to maintain a delicate balance between supporting Taiwan and preventing war with China, but tensions have risen recently.

Earlier this month, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan’s capital, Taipei, despite China repeatedly warning her not to.

China gave him a “terrible provocation” And he said he would sanction the Democrat and her family, but experts said his response was mixed In his standard playbook.

Pelosi defended Her trip, telling NBC: “We cannot allow the Chinese government to isolate Taiwan.”

After Pelosi’s visit, China held military drills around Taiwan and said further “training and war preparations” would continue. parents Reported.

Five member Congress A delegation led by Democratic Sen. Ed Markey Arrived in Taiwan on Sunday Less than two weeks after Pelosi’s visit, tensions with China threaten to escalate further.

Read the original article above Business Insider

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