As nighttime temperatures rise due to climate change, your risk of dying – by nearly six times in the future – from overheating that disrupts normal sleep patterns, warns a new global study.
According to researchers in China, South Korea, Japan, Germany and the US, global death rates due to extremely hot nights caused by climate change are expected to increase by up to 60 percent by the end of the century.
Ambient heat at night can disrupt the normal physiology of sleep, and poor sleep can damage the immune system and increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, chronic disease, inflammation and mental health conditions, according to a study published in The Lancet Planetary Health.
Study co-author Yuqiang Zhang, a climate scientist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in the US, said, “The risk of increasing nighttime temperatures has often been overlooked.
“The frequency and average intensity of warm nights will increase by more than 30 percent and 60 percent, respectively, by the 2100s, compared with less than a 20 percent increase in average daily temperature,” said Zhang of the Department of Environmental Science and Technology. Engineering at Gilling School.
The results show that the average intensity of hot night events will almost double from 20.4 degrees Celsius to 39.7 degrees Celsius in 28 cities in East Asia by 2090, with an increased disease burden due to extreme heat disrupting normal sleeping patterns.
This study is the first to estimate the effect of hot nights on the risk of climate change-related mortality.
The findings show that the burden of mortality could be significantly higher than predicted for average daily temperature increases, suggesting that climate change could have a troubling effect of warming, even within the constraints of the Paris Climate Agreement.
The team estimated heat-related deaths in 28 cities in China, South Korea and Japan between 1980 and 2015 and applied them to two climate change modeling scenarios matched to carbon-reduction scenarios adopted by the respective national governments.
Through this model, the team was able to predict that between 2016 and 2100, the risk of dying from fiery nights will increase sixfold.
This estimate is much higher than the daily average warming mortality risk suggested by climate change models.
“From our study, we highlight that, when assessing the burden of disease due to non-optimal temperatures, governments and local policymakers should consider the additional health effects of heterogeneous inter-day temperature variations,” said Haidong Kan, a professor at Fudan University. in China.
Since the study only included 28 cities in three countries, Zhang said, “extrapolation of these results to the entire East Asia region or other regions should be cautious.”
The above article was published by a wire agency with minimal changes to the headline and text.